REPORT OF THE PRE CONFERENCE ENERGY MEETING IN INDIA

As a preparation for the conference titled “Power up! – A just Energy Transition for the South”  at Cape Town in October, a one and a half day energy meeting was organised by Laya with partners of Miserior  who are engaged on issues of energy- from a grassroots as well as an advocacy perspective. The meeting was aimed at informing and updating the group on the ongoing debates around energy issues. This process was aimed to feed into the South Dialogue during the upcoming conference.

The meeting was designed to have inputs from experts working on energy who enriched the groups’ understanding through the input sessions while also providing an opportunity to meet Miserior partners working in different parts of the country.  Various Technologies relevant in rural and urban setups was shared by Samuchit Envirno Ltd, Pune. Partners also shared their work on aspects of energy which helped the group to know each other’s engagement   better.

The approach to exploring the  climate –energy- development  question  in the Indian context  drew from the premise that   arriving at an ambitious climate change deal  is a  global necessity vis a vis the Indian energy- development  landscape. The current Indian scenario and possible way forward was deliberated.

This report reflects the facts shared, issues discussed and the reflections made within the group during the meeting.

India’s Energy Basket

The energy sector of the country is largely dominated by coal accounting for over 39 % (primary energy consumption), following the global trend. If only commercial energy is taken into account, coal accounts for over 50 percent of India’s energy basket. However, with increasing environmental concerns and dwindling coal reserves, the share of natural gas has also been gradually increasing in the energy basket-Hydrocarbons (oil & gas) account for 30 percent. Following closely are the non-commercial energy sources such as fire-wood/ biomass /animal dung which account for over 26 percent of the energy mix. While hydropower contributes less than 5 percent.  Nuclear power, wind and other renewable energy sources contribute less than 1 percent of India’s primary energy needs.  Not to miss, the share of renewable sources especially large wind and mega hydro is seen to be on the rise. However, this energy mix and the current trends is a cause for concern largely from an Environmental and Climate change perspective. 

Sustainability of India’s coal based energy sector

The recent spurt in import of coal from Indonesia and Australia rubbishes the GSI (Geological Survey of India) and the IEP of the planning commission, the picture of abundance of domestic coal reserves. The highly inflated figures of coal cannot and should not form the basis for future energy planning for the country. However this does not seem to be the case. Over 75 percent of electricity is currently generated in coal based thermal power plants and that share is projected to remain the same for the next two decades despite the expected volume increase of over 4 to 5 times. Current trends the ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) shows that it has accorded environmental clearances to a large number of coal and gas-based power plants whose capacity totals 192,913 MW. In addition, 508,907 MW are at various stages in the environmental clearance cycle, that is, they are either Awaiting Environmental Clearance, or have Terms of Reference (TOR) Granted, or are Awaiting TOR. It is extremely rare for a thermal power plant (TPP) to be denied environmental clearance in India. This means that there are around 701,820 MW of coal and gas plants waiting to be built in the coming years. Coal based plants account for an overwhelming 84% of these in-pipeline projects. This would have a large water footprint-direct impact on water usage both, for cooling and ash disposal. One wonders on the relevance of this long term vision on coal based energy generation, being fully aware that thermal power generators in India perform well below global bench-marks in terms of thermal efficiency with efficiency levels of 27 to 30 percent compared to 37 percent in developed nations.

The recent, Twelfth plan document, projects growth in energy demand where primary “commercial” energy demand is expected to go up from 710 mtoe in 2011-12 to 1220 mtoe 2021-22 (72% over 10 years) with increase in power capacity which is expected to increase by 59% from ~200 GW to ~318 GW. Most of this is hinged on finite coal supplies.

Energy Access, Equity and Development Threshold in India

Although India is one of the largest and most populous countries, it has a long way to go in achieving the social, economic and technological wellbeing. From an energy perspective, the per capita energy use of India is only 1/12 of Americas’ per capita energy use. Comparing India per capita energy consumption   which stands at 529kgoe to that of China (1484 kgoe) and South Africa (2784) points to the huge energy deficit in our country. 

Domestically, official figures indicate that though 80% of the populations have access to grid power. But, a measly 20% of the rural households actually consume electricity.  Enormous inequity exists in access to clean energy between urban and rural, rich and poor. 45% rural households have no electricity access against 7% urban. Hours of supply in rural area often as low as 2 hours. Lack of grid infrastructure and poor economic situations contribute to this situation. 87% rural households use bio-mass/kerosene for cooking against 34% urban. Less than 30% use clean energy for cooking resulting in Reparable Suspended Particulate Matter (RSPM) and SPM beyond thresholds.

India therefore has a large development and infrastructure deficit that it needs to address- Half of our households do not have pucca houses, toilets, basic health care. One-fourth villages have no proper road access, one-fifth no primary schools. The country still accounts for around 30 percent of the world’s illiterate population and 70 percent of these people are women.

Taking the above into consideration, the energy scenario in India has to be seen together with the Development imperatives of the country. The relation of energy to HDI (Human Development Index) establishes that energy is a pre-requisite for human development and not just economic development. There is also a direct   link between energy consumption and life expectancy and infant mortality rates. Therefore while planning future development, India should also plan for some minimum energy per capita  commensurate with human  development  threshold and well-being.

While India has shown considerable potential in its performance on economic indicators such as GDP, it has yet to improve its position on the HDI to realize the potential that GDP has to offer. The country remains at the bottom of the ladder in terms of HDI. According to UN India’s Human Development Report, India is in the medium human development category (HDI -0.54) and is ranked 134 among 187 countries. It would be expected of India to at least target levels of human development comparable to mid-level developed countries close to 0.63.

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is defined as the deaths of infants of age less than one year per thousand live births. The MDG report of India, 2011states that IMR for the country as a whole declined by 30 points (rural IMR by 31 points vis-à-vis urban IMR by 16 points) in the last 20 years. Though IMR for the country as a whole declined by 30 points there is a huge difference in rural IMR and Urban IMR. Further the national level estimate of IMR is likely to be 45.04 against the MDG target of 26.67 in 2015 i.e India is likely to fall short of actualizing Goal 4 of the MDGs which relates to Reducing by two‐thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under‐five Mortality Rate. 

India has to ensure right to energy as part of right to development for every citizen and relook at energy-economy-environment linkages which are very crucial in defining India’s road to sustainability. From a macro perspective, it can be hoped that with the focus on the missed MDG i.e. ‘energy’ being integrated as an independent goal in the post 2015 development agenda would impart the impetus needed on reviewing international and domestic energy policies in the context of sustainable development.

Current Challenges and Constraints

Given the context above, India has to balance the three dimensions of the Energy Challenge- Addressing Huge Energy poverty and human development / wellbeing with constraints in availability of natural resources and the Ecological impacts of conventional energy use. Realistically speaking , India’s situation is understandable from the perspective of developing countries    who are  driven by the value placed on  coal based economic growth and not so much on environmental and climate concerns. ( On Environmental performance, India ranks 125 among 132 countries on Yale University's Environmental Performance Index (EPI) behind the likes of Pakistan, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan). While there are fundamental problems with the current growth paradigm apart from it being energy intensive, it also fosters skewed development. For eg contribution of different sectors to the GDP and employability figures show that Employment in agriculture (56%) is  disproportionate to its  contribution to GDP ( 16%).On the other hand industries contribute to 19% of employment and  27% to the GDP. This skewed figures need to put right.. It is therefore necessary to link planned growth in industry to growth of rural enterprises.  Further it is understandable that  India cannot simply invest in completely new  and modern power plants owing to the long life of coal-fired power plants and the higher cost of building advanced plants unless supported from outside.  Studies done in India on Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 under High Coal/ low coal and high renewable scenarios show that even if we succeed in increasing the share of renewable energy sources, its contribution to the total energy mix will not exceed 21(remain between6-21 %.) This dispels the notion of embarking on a 100% renewable pathway as has been imagined by many. What seems to be a viable scenario is a pragmatic mix of conventional and renewable sources. 

Further, in a scenario where India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of an equitable global deal and adopts low-C development pathways, would mean to reduce its dependence on coal (down to 40%), bring in efficiencies and invest in renewable technologies. Is India capable of taking this up, is a big question.

The bigger question though is to define India’s future energy and emissions trajectory based on minimum energy requirement subjected to emission constraints from a limited carbon budget framework? With the remaining 326 GtC available to the world , and 68 GT available to India( its potential actual share, 2010-2050), how would the distribution of remaining carbon budget happen according to fair shares of per capita entitlements based on equity?

What has India been doing?

India is the first country to have a dedicated department for renewables (MNRE) in 1992.  India also has a blueprint called The NAPCC (National Action Plan on Climate Change), which identifies measures that promote development while also addressing Climate concerns. This action plan is consistent with the Indian government’s commitment to incorporating climate mitigation into its economic growth model. O n the one hand, the Action is a positive sign that India is committed to addressing climate change and will factor in climate change in its pursuit of rapid economic growth. However, it disappoints on several counts, and has come in for criticism by several environmental groups.  Each state is required to draw up its state Action plan ON Climate Change (SAPCC). The SAPCC in them are not a visionary document as most of them have been developed by “experts” who seem to lack the ability of contextualising the local state scenario in proposing the roadmap for addressing Climate Change. But this but does provide an opportunity to engage with the state actors on the energy, agriculture, forests, water etc. However it lacks budget, teeth and timeline.

Low carbon committee was established which is government-appointed expert panel on low carbon strategies for inclusive growth under the planning commission. The report by this expert group indicates that with aggressive action, including new policies and technologies, India can achieve both 8% economic growth through the year 2020, as well as a reduction of emissions intensity by nearly 35%.  Its findings have fed into the India’s Twelfth Plan (2012-2017).

India has made a renewable Electricity investment to the tune of of ₹ 20,000 Cr  has been made  in 2011-2012. This is seen growing at 20% p.a  . However there seems to be an iinsufficient focus on universalizing clean energy access.

Opportunities for India:

Opportunity lies in the fact that 70% of the infrastructure   is to be built by 2030 which allows India to transition to a low-carbon development path and tackle emissions in a sustainable manner. As far as renewable are concerned, India has practically unlimited solar potential. This space is increasingly being tapped by giant corporates through large projects from a business perspective. Additional capacity being generated is feeding into the grid and not essentially reaching the energy deprived populations. This is a worrisome trend as it would further exacerbate inequity and therefore needs to be addressed as early as possible. There has been surge in wind projects with huge wind potential pegged at 700 – 3000 GW. A new mission ‘National Wind Mission’ has been integrated into the 12^th five year plan. However there are Challenges of grid integration, storage etc which needs to be streamlined. It is also to be borne in mind that Renewables cannot be treated like a holy cow and the footprint of renewables need to be considered while positing low carbon alternatives.  

Some worrisome trends….

With the burgeoning middle class and growing aspirations there has been an increasing   growth in ACs, Cars, Air travel. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from aviation are responsible for 4.9-14% of global warming and is projected to be responsible for 25% of global warming by 2050. Aviation is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector and the most climate-intensive form of transport. Travel in general and aviation in particular has to be made more efficient and responsible to the global environmental concerns.

There are serious Governance challenges. Capacity of institutions such as BEE, CEA, SNAs, Regulatory institutions needs to be strengthened to make them efficient. Enforcement of environmental norms is weak in the country which needs to be strengthened. Significantly greater transparency and capacity of governance institutions and policy formulation is required.

So, what is the way ahead for India?

In the face of multiple challenges India needs a careful balancing of multiple objectives such as development imperatives, growth, natural resource management and environment. To start with, India should decrease its decrease its dependence on coal.  Simultaneously it should aim to reduce its energy requirement while also exploring other sources of generating electricity.  Some estimates suggests that reduction to the extent of 700 Mtoe is possible .Power generation capacity could be potentially reduced by 128 GW (~2001 cap.)

Bring in Energy Efficiencies in Transport: Following the current trend energy use in transport is projected to increase greater than 10 times to 460 Mtoe by 2031. Efficiencies can be brought in by taking on most reduction through upgradation of normal technologies.  Making the  road-to-rail modal shift for freight and passenger  along with private to public transport shift could help in addressing transport emissions sustainably

Vigorous and effective implementation of policies that are already in place should be taken up along with significant deployment of new technologies and increased innovation.

Equity should be at the focal point of departure –domestically as well as  globally.  India should promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not just as “trickle down” supposition. It should work towards ensuring ” electricity for all” and “equitable access to modern cooking energy”

Creative ways of taxing for   some sectors of economy and sections of society to consume less so others can get more. Ideas like the ‘over consumption line’ could be worked on.

Address urbanization: About 50% of India s population would live in cities by 2050. Some data suggests that the emissions would be 40% higher because of increasing urbanization. This needs to be carefully factored in.

Relook at the production-distribution patterns: Cumulative footprint from the new age production and distribution patterns needs to be reviewed in the light of India’ a emissions trajectory. We seem to have somewhere lost the thrust of ‘getting local’ which needs to be revived.